Source: BLS, Establishment Survey, as of Nov. 2, 2009. Source: BEA, as of 2009 Q3. Source: BEA, as of September 2009. Source: BLS, as of October 2009. Source: BLS, as of October 2009. Five key questions are often asked about current economic and financial conditions: Has the financial crisis ended? Is the recession over? Will the economy return to full employment and normal conditions anytime soon? Is inflation going to jump too high? Does the Federal Reserve have an "exit strategy" to undo its extraordinary policy actions of the past two years? — Glenn Rudebusch » Read more in FedViews • October 2009 Inflation Expectations and the Risk of Deflation • FRBSF Economic Letter 2009-34 Predicting the course of inflation is one of the most important challenges facing monetary policymakers. Useful aids to such prediction are the measures of expected future inflation obtained from prices in government bond markets. An examination of recent inflation-indexed and non-indexed U.S. Treasury bond yields suggests that financial market participants believe that the probability of prolonged deflation has become fairly small. Christensen • November 2, 2009 District Trends Beige Book • October 21, 2009 Economic activity appeared to pick up slightly, with reports pointing to additional signs of stabilization or improvement in some sectors. » Summary • 12th District • Full report 12L Economic Trends • September 2009 ETC: Economic Trends & Conditions • September 2009 BS&R's 12th District Banking Profile • Q2 2009 |
Recent FRBSF research on the crisis
For a complete list, please visit: Crisis & Response New in Research In the News Housing Market Faces Hard Road to Normal, Fed Economist Says • taken from Bloomberg.com • by Vivien Lou Chen • October 26 "Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae now own or guarantee an overwhelming share of originations," bank senior economist John Krainer wrote in a paper released today. "At the same time, non-agency mortgage securitization and loans retained in lender portfolios have largely dried up." The paper underscores the challenge that economists at the San Francisco Fed, one of 12 regional Fed banks, believe that the economy faces as it begins to emerge from the worst recession in seven decades. Bank researcher Glenn Rudebusch concluded in another paper this month that the economy is not likely to return to full employment soon even though the recession is "almost certainly" over. » Read more in Recent Developments in Mortgage Finance
Economics news digest • taken from the Financial Times Money-Supply Blog • October 20 The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco points out that although growth has returned, the economy will remain in a deep hole with high unemployment for some time to come. » Read more in FRBSF FedViews • October 13 • Rudebusch Two easy-money pieces • taken from NYTimes.com • The Conscience of a Liberal Blog • by Paul Krugman • October 20 A San Francisco Fed study that tries to capture how the Fed funds rate relates to the interest rates that matter for spending... Basically, this says that much of the Fed's loosening has been offset by troubles in the financial system, so that actual credit hasn't gotten much looser at all. » Read more in Gauging Aggregate Credit Market Conditions
“Risk Aversion, the Labor Margin, and Asset Pricing in DSGE Models” • Working paper 2009-26 This paper derives simple, closed-form expressions for risk aversion that take into account the household's labor margin. We show that risk premia on assets computed using the stochastic discount factor are proportional to Arrow-Pratt risk aversion, so that measuring risk aversion correctly is crucial for understanding asset prices. Closed-form expressions for risk aversion in DSGE models with generalized recursive preferences and internal and external habits are also derived.
Swanson • October 2009 Upcoming Seminars International Seminar Macro Seminar Finance Seminar International Seminar Applied Micro Seminar Macro Seminar Finance Seminar Upcoming Conferences The U.S. and World Economic Geography Before and After the Downturn (CSIP Symposium) Research Centers |